(ii) deliver a significantly improved match between ex ante and ex post forecast uncertainty. According to our estimates …, uncertainty about inflation, output growth and unemployment in the U.S. and the Euro area is higher after correcting for the … survey‐based average uncertainty during the years since the financial and sovereign debt crisis. …

We present the first calibration of quantum decision theory (QDT) to an empirical data set. The data comprise 91 … that the probability of a choice can be expressed as the sum of its utility and attraction factors. We propose to model (a …) the utility factor with a stochastic version of cumulative prospect theory (logit-CPT), and (b) the attraction factor with …

We introduce a dynamical model for the time evolution of probability density functions incorporating uncertainty in the … space of probability densities. The purpose is to quantify uncertainty that can be used for probabilistic forecasting … parameters. The uncertainty follows stochastic processes, thereby defining a new class of stochastic processes with values in the …