This paper evaluates short-run out-of-sample exchange rate predictability with real-time data for 15 OECD countries from 1973 to 2013. We consider the Taylor rule fundamentals model, where the variables that enter the Taylor rule are used to forecast exchange rate changes, and the Taylor rule...

An extensive literature that studied the performance of empirical exchange rate models following Meese and Rogoff's (1983a) seminal paper has not convincingly found evidence of out-of-sample exchange rate predictability. This paper extends the conventional set of models of exchange rate...

This article discusses the importance of ideology, institutions, politics, and economic knowledge for forecasting economic policies and their impact on macroeconomic developments. Following a general discussion of those factors, the article illustrates their forecasting usefulness by drawing on...

The economic development indicators in the Russian Federation over the first half-year of 2015 and the initial data on the movement of the main macroeconomic indices in July-August 2015 are such that they have necessitated a downward adjustment of the main macroeconomic indices plotted in the...

Eurosystem macroprudential policies require shared action between national authorities and the European Central Bank (ECB). This has created the need for a common basis for macroprudential analysis, and as a result the Macroprudential Database (MPDB) was created by the ECB and the European...

The foreign exchange reserves of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) countries have decreased since the fall of world oil price that began in July 2014. In fact, five of the six of the CEMAC countries are oil producers. Based on interrupted time series modeling, the...

The foreign exchange reserves of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) countries have decreased since the fall of world oil price that began in July 2014. In fact, five of the six of the CEMAC countries are oil producers. Based on interrupted time series modeling, the...