We study the changing relationship between Brent oil prices and geopolitical risk, conditional on physical oil market conditions. We conduct the analysis at three frequencies, medium (1-3 years), high (2-3 months), and very high (daily), using three complementary techniques at the different...

This paper investigates the effects of low oil prices and heightened geopolitical risks on economic growth and investment in the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. We employ a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model with 53 countries, including 15 MENA countries, over the period...

We investigate the joint dynamics of oil prices, financial liquidity and geopolitical risk, within a multi-country global vector-autoregressive (GVAR) model. We find that low oil prices are expected to trigger higher levels of geopolitical risk, and that decelerating financial liquidity serves...

This paper aims simultaneously to study the global dynamic relationship of oil prices, financial liquidity, and geopolitical risk, on the one hand, and the economic performance of oil-dependent economies on the other. Global and country-specific dynamics are studied together in a Global Vector...