. Adding inflation as a second variable, we uncover two states in which expected consumption growth is low, one with high and … one with negative expected inflation. Embedded in a general equilibrium asset pricing model with learning, these dynamics …

Did the decline in inflation rates from 2012 to 2015 and the low levels of market-based inflation expectations lead to … de-anchored inflation dynamics in the euro area? This paper is the first time-varying event study to investigate the … reaction of inflation-linked swap (ILS) rates - a market-based measure of inflation expectations - to macroeconomic surprises …

We tackle two questions in this paper: In the sovereign debt crisis, what moves the euro area inflation outlook and has … the firm anchoring of medium to long-term inflation expectations been touched? Deriving densities from a new data set on … options on the euro area harmonized index of consumer prices provides us with the full distribution of inflation expectations …

inflation differ over time. We show that the impact varies considerably over time, depends on the source of increased liquidity … (M1, M3-M1 or credit) and the underlying state of the economy (asset price boom-bust, business cycle, inflation cycle …

of total inflation to price nominal Treasuries. This approach captures different frequencies in inflation fluctuations … a common structure of latent factors determines and predicts the term structure of yields and inflation. The model … outperforms popular benchmarks and is at par with the Survey of Professional Forecasters in forecasting inflation. Real rates …

of total inflation to price nominal Treasuries. This approach captures different frequencies in inflation fluctuations … a common structure of latent factors determines and predicts the term structure of yields and inflation. The model … outperforms popular benchmarks and is at par with the Survey of Professional Forecasters in forecasting inflation. Real rates …

Inflation-indexed securities would appear to be the most direct source of information about inflation expectations and … real interest rates" (Bernanke, 2004). In this paper we study the term structure of real interest rates, expected inflation … and inflation risk premia using data on prices of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) over the period 2000 …

We estimate inflation risk-neutral densities (RNDs) in the Euro area since 2009. We use Euro inflation swaps and caps … the implicit RND for forward measures, like the five-on-five years inflation rate, which, although it is not directly … communication over the last few years. Specifically, the evolution of tails risks (associated with deflation and high inflation …

prices on break-even inflation rates (BEIs) of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) of the United States. The … oil prices can affect inflation expectations in the short term but this effect gets diminished to the extinction because … inflation expectations depend on the inflation target of a monetary policy. Notably, the 5Y5Y BEI has a statistically …

Compared with stocks, bonds are more directly affected by fluctuations in oil prices through the expected inflation … shocks predict negative real bond risk premium and positive inflation risk premium. Since these two effects offset each other … bond yield, breakeven inflation, and nominal bond yield respond differently to oil supply and demand shocks …