The Chinese economic development affects GDP growth and inflation in the advanced countries. A GVAR approach is used to …

We analyze how modeling international dependencies improves forecasts for the global economy based on a Bayesian GVAR … density into its marginals and a copula term capturing the dependence structure across countries. The GVAR outperforms … structure across countries, whereas the GVAR does not yield better predictive marginal densities. The relative performance gains …

We present evidence that global vectorautoregressive (GVAR) models produce significantly more accurate recession …