Using real-time data, we analyze how the systematic expectation errors of professional forecasters in 19 advanced economies depend on the state of the business cycle. Our results indicate that the general result that forecasters systematically overestimate output growth (across all countries)...

The characterization of term premia movements continues to be a puzzle in finance though the term premia are used for return predictability and studying broader economic activity. We analyze the movements of the first and second conditional moments of term premia in a non-linear non- parametric...

We develop a model of firm learning in volatile markets with noisy signals and test its predictions using historical German data. Firms' forecasts improve with age. We exploit German Reunification as a natural experiment where firms in the East are treated with ignorance about the distribution...

Asset Prices, Booms and Recessions"" is a book on Financial Economics from a dynamic perspective. It focuses on the dynamic interaction of financial markets and economic activity. The financial markets to be studied here encompasses the money and bond market, credit market, stock market and...