This study augments the neoclassical growth model with a mechanism that creates a novel transmission channel through which financial shocks propagate to the real economy. By affecting agents' ability to finance consumption expenditures, financial frictions create a demand for safe assets that...

Stock market fundamentals would not seem to meaningfully predict returns over a shorter-term horizon --- yet some economic agents could be particularly concerned about severe tail risk, rather than just mean returns. Motivated by present value logic, and the literature's suggestion that required...

We show the competing effects of a housing bubble on the real economy by developing a two-sector dynamic model with housing production. On the one hand, firms can sell or collateralize their houses to obtain financing, so a housing bubble helps firms obtain credit to finance their investment and...

This paper explores the dynamic relationship between firm debt and real outcomes using data from 24 European economies over the period of 2000-2018. Based on macro data, it shows that a rise in credit to firms is associated with an increase in employment growth in the short-term, but employment...