Consumers often rely heavily on price as a predictor of quality and typically overestimate the strength of this relation. Furthermore, the inferences of quality they make on the basis of price can influence their actual purchase decisions. Selective hypothesis testing appears to underlie the...

This paper studies how people make inference about a state of the world when the information structure includes additional, payoff-irrelevant states. For example, learning about effort from observed performance may require accounting for the otherwise irrelevant role of luck. This creates an...