This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook …. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and survey-based inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation … long-horizons. Overall, the NKPC is a useful tool for monitoring euro area inflation outlook. Thanks to its fast and light …

In this paper we test whether globalisation has affected the relationship between the output gap and inflation in the … euro area. Then we investigate how the traditional Phillips Curve relating the inflation and the domestic output gap can be …-of-sample real-time simulation exercise, focusing on the inflation density forecast. …

monetary policy. The focus is on inflation dynamics and all three studies involve some approach of forecasting. The first … chapter deals with estimation problems of a monetary policy rule and inflation dynamics. In light of potential weak instrument …. These factors are used to instrument the public's unobserved inflation expectations prevalent at each point in time. The …

We run out-of-sample forecasts for the inflation rate of 15 euro-zone countries using a NAIRU Phillips curve and a …

This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with … an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two … turning points in the inflation cycle ex post and perform well in a simulated real-time exercise over the period from 2010 to …