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An examination of the IFS corporation tax forecasting record
Basu, Suman; Emmerson, Carl; Frayne, Christine - 2003
This paper examines the corporation tax forecasting techniques used by the Institute for Fiscal Studies. For current … forecasts. In the short term inaccuracies in the modelling process are found to be more important than errors in forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293091
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Crude oil prices and the euro-dollar exchange rate: A forecasting exercise
Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus; Breitenfellner, Andreas - 2008
If oil exporters stabilize the purchasing power of their export revenues in terms of imports, exchange rate developments (and particularly, developments in the US dollar/euro exchange rate) may contain information about oil price changes. This hypothesis depends on three conditions: (a) OPEC has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293389
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A systematic comparison of professional exchange rate forecasts with judgmental forecasts of novices: Are there substantial differences?
Schmidt, Robert; Leitner, Johannes - 2004
markets. We analyze the respective forecasting accuracy and our results indicate that there exist substantial differences …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296526
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Biases of professional exchange rate forecasts: Psychological explanations and an experimentally based comparison to novices
Leitner, Johannes; Schmidt, Robert; Bofinger, Peter - 2003
reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve … environment, we analyse the forecasting behaviour of students experimentally, using a simulated currency series. Our results … indicate that a topically oriented trend adjustment behaviour (TOTA) is a general characteristic of human forecasting behaviour …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305737
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Oil and Product Price Dynamics in International Petroleum Markets
Lanza, Alessandro; Manera, Matteo; Giovannini, Massimo - 2003
In this paper we investigate crude oil and products price dynamics. We present a comparison among ten price series of crude oils and fourteen price series of petroleum products, considering four distinct market areas (Mediterranean, North Western Europe, Latin America and North America) over the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011325123
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Dynamic prediction pools: An investigation of financial frictions and forecasting performance
Del Negro, Marco; Hasegawa, Raiden B.; Schorfheide, Frank - 2014
pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011340986
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Forecasting trade
Keck, Alexander; Raubold, Alexander - 2006
This paper develops a set of time series models to provide short-term forecasts (6 to 18 months ahead) of international trade both at the global level and for selected regions. Our results compare favourably to other forecasts, notably by the International Monetary Fund, as measured by standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326691
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Ein Prognose- und Simulationswerkzeug zur Unterstützung der kurzfristigen Personalbedarfsplanung in einem Call Center / A Forecasting and Simulation Tool for Personnel Requirement...
Schuhr, Roland - In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 224 (2004) 1-2, pp. 166-184
Zusammenfassung Aufgrund der arbeitsintensiven Dienstleistungen eines Call Centers ist die auf die Optimierung der Personalkosten zielende Personalbedarfs- und Personaleinsatzplanung eine wichtige Aufgabe des Call Center-Managements. In diesem Beitrag wird die Grundkonzeption eines Prognose- und...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014609013
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Financial professionals' overconfidence: Is it experience, job, or attitude?
Gloede, Oliver; Menkhoff, Lukas - 2009
This paper examines financial professionals' overconfidence in their forecasting performance. We are the first to … compare individual financial professionals' self-ratings with their true forecasting performance. Data spans several years at … attitude to herd, whereas recent forecasting success comes along with more overconfidence. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270051
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A First Look on the New Halle Economic Projection Model
Giesen, Sebastian; Holtemöller, Oliver; Scharff, Juliane; … - 2010
In this paper we develop a small open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and the exchange rate in a multi-country framework. Our model - the Halle Economic Projection Model (HEPM) - is closely related to studies recently published...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271586