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Chances are...Stochastic Forecasts of the Social Security Trust Fund and Attempts to Save It
Anderson, Michael W.; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Lee, Ronald D. - 2008
the Lee- Carter and Lee-Tuljapurkar mortality and fertility models. Economic variables are modeled as vector …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014220927
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Using the pension multiple to measure retirement outcomes
Minney, Aaron; Zhu, Zili; Guo, Ying; Li, Jiaming; … - In: Finance research letters 49 (2022), pp. 1-8
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013479606
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Analysis and forecasting of social security: a study of robustness
Westlund, Anders H.; Ermolieva, Tatiana; MacKellar, … - In: Financial modelling : with 74 tables : [a selection of …, (pp. 401-427). 2000
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001485064
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Le previsioni della spesa per pensioni : metodologie a confronto ; atti del Workshop, Roma, 2 dicembre 1997
Baldacci, Emanuele (contributor);  … - 1998
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000995513
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The impact of population aging on the German statutory pension insurance : a probabilistic approach
Vanella, Patrizio; Gonzalez, Miguel Rodriguez; Wilke, … - 2021
decline in mortality alongside low fertility rates - a situation that puts social security systems under severe pressure. To …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012599101
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Inefficiency in social security trust funds forecasts
Lahiri, Kajal; Zhang, Junyan; Zhao, Yongchen - 2021
We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration's projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012668902
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Inefficiency in Social Security Trust Funds Forecasts
Lahiri, Kajal; Zhang, Junyan; Zhao, Yongchen - 2021
We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013313449
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Stochastic Infinite Horizon Forecasts for Social Security and Related Studies
Lee, Ronald - 2004
uncertain ultimate levels in stochastic models of wage growth and fertility. These changes sometimes substantially affect the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467770
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Stochastic population forecast for Germany and its consequence for the German pension system
Härdle, Wolfgang; Mysickova, Alena - 2009
for Germany is derived through a stochastic population renewal process using forecasts of mortality, fertility and … indices of mortality and fertility rates. These models are then used in the simulation of future vital rates to obtain age …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003814452
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Stochastic Infinite Horizon Forecasts for Social Security and Related Studies
Lee, Ronald D.; Miller, Timothy; Anderson, Michael W. - 2021
uncertain ultimate levels in stochastic models of wage growth and fertility. These changes sometimes substantially affect the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013230407