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Term structure modeling and forecasting of government bond yields : does a good in -sample fit imply reasonable out-of-sample forecasts?

Ullah, Wali; Matsuda, Yasumasa; Tsukuda, Yoshihiko - In: Economic papers : a journal of applied economics and policy 32 (2013) 4, pp. 535-560

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010259467

Bond return predictability : economic value and links to the macroeconomy

Gargano, Antonio; Pettenuzzo, Davide; Timmermann, Allan - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 65 (2019) 2, pp. 508-540

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012000665

The impact of sovereign yield curve differentials on value-at-risk forecasts for foreign exchange rates

Fink, Holger Maria; Fuest, Andreas; Port, Henry - In: Risks : open access journal 6 (2018) 3, pp. 1-19

A functional ARMA-GARCH model for predicting the value-at-risk of the EURUSD exchange rate is introduced. The model implements the yield curve differentials between EUR and the US as exogenous factors. Functional principal component analysis allows us to use the information of basically the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011890808

Bond variance risk premia

Mueller, Philippe; Vedolin, Andrea; Yen, Yu-min - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009552228

Monetary policy, bond returns and debt dynamics

Berndt, Antje; Yeltekin, Şevin - In: Journal of monetary economics 73 (2015), pp. 119-136

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011381760

Essays on bond return predictability and liquidity risk

Gómez, Karoll - 2015

If there is valuable information for predicting bond prices over time, how can we use this information to improve investor's risk-return trade-off and term structure modelling? This thesis aims at answering this question. The first chapter discusses the predictive role of alternative measures of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011298908