We propose two novel methods to "bring ABMs to the data". First, we put forward a new Bayesian procedure to estimate the numerical values of ABM parameters that takes into account the time structure of simulated and observed time series. Second, we propose a method to forecast aggregate time...

A reliable prediction of unconditional welfare distributions, like income or consumption, is essential for welfare analysis, and in particular for inequality, poverty or development studies. Where observations of expenditures or income are missing, the mean prediction based on available...

Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to...