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Using survey data of market expectations, we ask which popular exchange rate models appear to be consistent with expectation formation of market forecasters. Exchange rate expectations are found to be correlated with inflation differentials and productivity differentials, indicating that the...
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We study the role of consumer confidence in forecasting real personal consumption expenditure, and contribute to the … confidence not only at the quarterly frequency, but using monthly data as well. Second, we employ real-time data in addition to … commonly used revised vintages. Third, we investigate the role of consumer confidence in a rich information context. We produce …
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