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Advance Layoff Notices and Labor Market Forecasting
Krolikowski, Pawel Michal - 2020
We collect rich establishment-level data about advance layoff notices filed under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act since January 1990. We present in-sample evidence that the number of workers affected by WARN notices leads state-level initial unemployment insurance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842419
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Können offene Stellen als Vorlaufindikator für Neueinstellungen dienen?
Bleninger, Philipp; Kettner, Anja; Pausch, Stephanie; … - 2012
In economic research, empirical evidence has been missing on the question whether vacancies can be seen as a forward … indicator for employment. Discussing current trends in vacancies, this is often assumed: An increase in the number of job … vacancies gets linked to good prospects for employment. What has been missing is empirical evidence that is grounded on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009508080
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Employee Voice, Human Resource Practices, and Quit Rates : Evidence from the Telecommunications Industry
Batt, Rosemary; Colvin, Alexander J.S; Keefe, Jeffrey - 2013
Using data from a 1998 establishment-level survey in the telecommunications industry, the authors examine the predictors of aggregate quit rates. They draw on strategic human resource and industrial relations theory to identify the sets of employee voice mechanisms and human resource practices...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014034012
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Google econometrics and unemployment forecasting
Askitas, Nikolaos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - 2009
The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003859346
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Google econometrics and unemployment forecasting
Askitas, Nikolaos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - 2009
The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003873102
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Prognosen aus dem Internet : weitere Erholung am Arbeitsmarkt erwartet
Askitas, Nikos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - 2009
Nach einem neuen methodischen Prognosekonzept, das arbeitsmarktbezogene Internetdaten nutzt, entspannt sich zum Frühjahr 2009 die Arbeitsmarktlage. Das Papier erläutert die Technik der Prognose der Arbeitslosigkeit unter Nutzung der Messung der Google-Suchaktivität und illustriert die...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003874808
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Do real-time Okun's law errors predict GDP data revisions?
Barnes, Michelle L.; Gumbau-Brisa, Fabià; Olivei, … - 2012 - This version: December 2012
Using U.S. real-time data, we show that changes in the unemployment rate unexplained by Okun's Law have significant predictive power for GDP data revisions. A positive (negative) error in Okun's Law in real time implies that GDP will be later revised to show less (more) growth than initially...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009723755
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Forecasting with a mismatch-enhanced labor market matching function
Hutter, Christian; Weber, Enzo - 2014
vacancies cannot be filled within the usual period of time. We investigate whether and to what extent forecasts of German job …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010401765
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Lessons for forecasting unemployment in the United States : use flow rates, mind the trend
Meyer, Brent; Tasci, Murat - 2015
This paper evaluates the ability of autoregressive models, professional forecasters, and models that incorporate unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches - the more reduced-form approach of Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010484066
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Google econometrics and unemployment forecasting
Askitas, Nikolaos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - 2009
The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003844913