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The paper studies a dynamic communication game in the presence of adverse selection and career concerns. A forecaster of privately known competence, who cares about his reputation, chooses the timing of the forecast regarding the outcome of some future event. We find that in all equilibria in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859563
earnings and the accuracy of the guidance, but issuing a forecast is costless for all manager types. Managers are thus able to … signal their ability through accuracy in their forecasts. While high ability managers would seem to benefit the most from … issuing guidance, in equilibrium we find that both high and low ability managers withhold guidance, while intermediate ability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012851796
We describe a methodology for making counterfactual predictions when the information held by strategic agents is a latent parameter. The analyst observes behavior which is rationalized by a Bayesian model in which agents maximize expected utility, given partial and differential information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892592
We describe a methodology for making counterfactual predictions when the information held by strategic agents is a latent parameter. The analyst observes behavior which is rationalized by a Bayesian model in which agents maximize expected utility given partial and differential information about...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012893994
Information aggregation mechanisms are designed explicitly for collecting and aggregating dispersed information. An excellent example of the use of this "wisdom of crowds" is a prediction market. The purpose of our Twitter-based prediction market is to suggest that carefully designed market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014040950
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In this study, we try to examine whether the forecast errors obtained by the ANN models affect the breakout of financial crises. Additionally, we try to investigate how much the asymmetric information and forecast errors are reflected on the output values. In our study, we used the exchange rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011545129
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