We propose autocorrelation-robust asymptotic variances of the Brier score and Brier skill score, which are generally applicable in circumstances with weak serial correlation. An empirical application in macroeconomics underscores the importance of taking care of serial correlation. We find that...

We develop a panel data count model combined with a latent Gaussian spatio-temporal heterogenous state process to analyze monthly severe crimes at the census tract level in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Our data set combines Uniform Crime Reporting data with socio-economic data from the 2000 census....

In this article, the problem of constructing models of multi-section conveyor-type transport systems using a neural network is considered. The analysis of models of long-distance multi-section transport systems, which are used to design control systems of the flow parameters from the point of...

The multi-section transport conveyor model based on the neural network for predicting the output flow parameters is considered. The expediency of using sequential and batch modes of training of a neural network in a model of a multi-section transport conveyor has been investigated. The quality...

We revisit the apparent historical success of technical trading rules on daily prices of the DJIA index from 1897 to 2011, and use the False Discovery Rate as a new approach to data snooping. The advantage of the FDR over existing methods is that it selects more outperforming rules which allows...

The forecasting uncertainty around point macroeconomic forecasts is usually measured by the historical performance of the forecasting model, using measures such as root mean squared forecasting errors (RMSE). This measure, however, has the major drawback that it is constant over time and hence...

In this paper, we provide evidence on two alternative mechanisms of interaction between returns and volatilities: the leverage effect and the volatility feedback effect. We stress the importance of distinguishing between realized volatility and implied volatility, and find that implied...

The limit distribution of conventional test statistics for predictability may depend on the degree of persistence of the predictors. Therefore, diverging results and conclusions may arise because of the different asymptotic theories adopted. Using differencing transformations, we introduce a new...

We present a general method to detect and extract from a finite time sample statistically meaningful correlations between input and output variables of large dimensionality. Our central result is derived from the theory of free random matrices, and gives an explicit expression for the interval...

This paper provides empirical results supporting the theoretical ones by the first author on backtesting long-horizon distributional forecasts. The problem is quite general but for us it is motivated by the regulatory requirement of backtesting evolution models used in the measurement of...