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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001332060
In this paper, we analyze the impact of external uncertainty shocks on the Korean economy, focusing on Russian geopolitical risks and U.S. monetary policy uncertainty. We find that increases in external uncertainties negatively affect the Korean macroeconomy, with a particularly pronounced...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015337684
We propose a Bayesian VAR model with stochastic volatility and time varying skewness to estimate the degree of labour at risk in the euro area and in the United States. We model the asymmetry of the shocks to changes in the unemployment rate as a function of real activity and financial risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014362647
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012270906
As criminal justice actors increasingly seek to rely on more evidence-informed practices, including risk assessment instruments, they often lack adequate information about the evidence that informed the development of the practice or the tool. Open science practices, including making scientific...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012832423
Uncertainty has recently become a major concern for policymakers and academics. Spikes in uncertainty are often associated with recessions and have detrimental effects on the aggregate economy. This paper analyzes the effects of uncertainty on firms' hiring and investment decisions, both...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012980511
This paper evaluates the welfare effects of trade in a setting with risk averse workers and uncertainty in labour market outcomes. We provide conditions under which a small change in relative prices due to trade reduces welfare in both a static as well as a dynamic economy. Finally, we develop a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012914041
to the International Labor Organization, employment in 2023 should grow by 1.0% compared to a 2.3% growth rate in 2022 …, could exacerbate the reduction in investment spending. As a result, many countries have yet to return to employment levels … economically by the conflict in Ukraine, although employment is projected to fall in these regions in 2023, unemployment will rise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014357315
We investigate how a macroeconomic uncertainty shock affects the labor market. We focus on the uncertainty transmission mechanism, for which we employ a set of worker flow indicators in addition to labor stock variables. We incorporate common factors from such indicators into a framework that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012030061
This paper studies the impact of an increase in uncertainty on labor markets where jobs with strong employment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210826