We elaborate on the tail conditional expectation, the tail conditional variance, and the tail variance when the residuals follow the standardized Pearson type-IV distribution. If the probability density function describing the data generation process is continuous and the moments are finite,...

The underlying data from which the U.S. unemployment rate, labor-force participation rate, and duration of unemployment are calculated contain numerous internal contradictions. This paper catalogs these inconsistencies and proposes a reconciliation. We find that the usual statistics understate...

In this paper we develop a business cycle measure that can be shown to have excellent ex-ante forecasting properties for GDP growth. For identifying business cycle movements, we use a semantic approach. We infer nine different states of the economy directly from firms' responses in business...