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The collapse in trade relative to GDP during 2008-09 was unusually large historically and puzzling relative to the predictions of canonical two-country models. In a calibrated dynamic general equilibrium two-country model where firms must build supply chain relationships in order to sell their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012951457
real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during and in the aftermath of the great recession. We replicate this … estimated framework to quantify the output loss due to the large uncertainty shock that materialized in 2008Q3. We find such a … shock to be able to explain about 60% of the output loss in the 2008-2014 period. The same estimated model unveils the role …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012495676
We study the causes behind the shift in the level of U.S. GDP following the Great Recession. To this end, we propose a model featuring endogenous productivity à la Romer and a financial friction à la Kiyotaki–Moore. Adverse financial disturbances during the recession and the lack of strong...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012049309
macroeconomic instability caused by the recessionary shock of 2008/2009. Using data from 16,166 manufacturing and business services …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011985889
We estimate a DSGE model where rare large shocks can occur, but replace the commonly used Gaussian assumption with a Student´s t-distribution. Results from the Smets and Wouters (2007) model estimated on the usual set of macroeconomic time series over the 1964-2011 period indicate that 1) the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013096381
We estimate a DSGE model where rare large shocks can occur, but replace the commonly used Gaussian assumption with a Student's t-distribution. Results from the Smets and Wouters (2007) model estimated on the usual set of macroeconomic time series over the 1964-2011 period indicate that 1) the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010219714
I identify new patterns in countries' economic performance over the 2007-2014 period based on proximity through distance, trade, and finance to the US subprime mortgage and Eurozone debt crisis areas. To understand the causes of the cross-country variation, I develop an open economy model with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011975657
show that these patterns can arise in a model where a financial shock temporarily increases the costs of external finance … substantially when investment falls after a financial shock. I find that this mechanism can account for almost a third of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014233623
framework starts by discerning driving forces set in motion by the initial shock. These are higher discounts applied by decision … institutions. The next step is to study how driving forces influence general equilibrium, both at the time of the initial shock and … later as its effects, persist. Some of the effects propagate the effects of the shock—they contribute to poor performance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024284
The paper empirically investigates the economic resilience of Western German regions in the wake of the Great Recession … specialization, related and unrelated variety) and the explicit subdivision of shortterm resilience into resistance and recovery. The … of short-term resilience entails the risk of imprecise, if not false conclusions on the driving mechanisms stabilizing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011638546