We present a new procedure for detecting multiple additive outliers in GARCH(1,1) models at unknown dates. The outlier …

Recent research has found that macroeconomic survey forecasts of uncertainty exhibit several deficiencies, such as … horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation …

statistics, effect sizes or significance tests. Practical implications - Gain-probability diagrams provided a much better basis …Purpose - The purpose of this article is to show the gains that can be made if researchers were to use gain-probability … for making decisions than typical summary statistics, effect sizes or significance tests. Originality/value - G-P diagrams …