This paper examines whether the outcome bias harms price efficiency in betting exchange markets. In soccer, the match outcome is an unreliable performance measure, as it underestimates the high level of randomness involved in the sport. If bettors overestimate the importance of past match...

An avalanche of empirical studies has addressed the validity of the rank-size rule (or Zipf's law) in a multi-city context in many countries. City size in most countries seems to obey Zipf's law, but the question under which conditions (e.g. sample size, spatial scale) this 'law' holds remained...

Online sports betting is growing rapidly around the world. We describe how the competitive structure of the bookmaking market affects odds when bettors disagree about the probabilities of the outcomes of sporting events but are on average correct. We show that the demand for bets on longshots is...

The rational expectations efficient market model of the exchange rate has failed empirically. In this paper we develop a model of the exchange rate in which agents use simple forecasting rules. Based on an ex post evaluation of the relative profitability of these rules they decide whether to...

This paper studies how national sentiment in the form of either a perception or a loyalty bias of bettors may affect pricing patterns on national wagering markets for international sport events. We show theoretically that both biases can be profitably exploited by bookmakers by way of price...

We present a new model analyzing the effect of uncertainty faced by bookmakers. It is shown that bettors with inside information or expert analysis decrease the odds set by profit maximizing bookmakers. Data on previously unraced two year old horses and those that have raced previously are used...

This article develops a socio-economic model that analyzes the doping decision of professional athletes. In their decision to use performance enhancing drugs athletes do not only evaluate the costs and bene?ts (in terms of potential rank improvement). They also take into account peer-group...