Vector error-correction models (VECM) are increasingly being used to capture dynamic relationships between financial variables. Estimation and interpretation of such models can be enhanced if zero restrictions are allowed in the coefficient matrices. Specifically, in tests of indirect causality...

One of the main results of the literature on the effects of uncertainty on trade states that uncertainty should not matter in the presence of well developed forward markets. Empirical studies, however, do not support this result. We derive the demand for forward cover in a small open economy...

In this paper we propose a model for the conditional multivariate density of integer count variables defined on the set Zn. Applying the concept of copula functions, we allow for a general form of dependence between the marginal processes which is able to pick up the complex nonlinear dynamics...

In this paper we develop a model for the conditional inflated multivariate density of integer count variables with domain Zn. Our modelling framework is based on a copula approach and can be used for a broad set of applications where the primary characteristics of the data are: (i) discrete...

This paper builds a general test of contagion in financial markets based on bivariate correlation analysis - a test that can be interpreted as an extension of the normal correlation theorem. Contagion is defined as a structural break in the data generating process of rates of return. Using a...

There is a huge literature on the effects of uncertainty on trade levels. One very strong result of that literature is that uncertainty should not matter, as long as well developed forward markets exist. The empirical implications of this result, however, are hard to find in the data. We model...