Part I How can we know who is happy? Conceptual and methodological issues -- Objective happiness / Daniel Kahneman -- Ecological momentary assessment / Arthur A. Stone, Sual S. Shiffman, Marten W. DeVries -- Measurement issues in emotion research / Randy J. Larsen and Barbara L. Fredrickson --...

This research examines the development of confidence and accuracy over time in the context of forecasting. Although overconfidence has been studied in many contexts, little research examines its progression over long periods of time or in consequential policy domains. This study employs a unique...