Using a two-sector-two-country model with aggregate scale economies and unionisation, we show that optimal welfare state policy entails positive levels of unemployment benefits under free-trade and capital mobility. In this setting, economic integration does not reduce the revenue raising...

This paper analyzes the role of nominal assets in ranking intertemporal budget policies in a growing open economy. The budget policies are ranked in terms of the public's intertemporal stock of tax liabilities. Our main result is that, in a small open economy, the valuation of private and public...

This paper analyzes the role of nominal assets in ranking intertemporal budget policies in a growing open economy. The budget policies are ranked in terms of the public's intertemporal stock of tax liabilities. Our main result is that, in a small open economy, the valuation of private and public...

We analyze the role of government intertemporal budget policies in a growing open economy including nominal assets in the presence of an upward sloping supply of debt. This introduces transitional dynamics that influence the effects of government policy instruments on the long term fiscal...

The paper studies risk mitigation associated with capital regulation, in a context when banks may choose tail risk assets. We show that this undermines the traditional result that higher capital reduces excess risk-taking driven by limited liability. When capital raising is costly, poorly...

In this paper we face the fitting versus forecasting paradox with the objective of realizing an optimal Early Warning System to better describe and predict past and future sovereign defaults. We do this by proposing a new Regression Tree-based model that signals a potential crisis whenever...

This paper examines the mechanisms through which government spending affects the dynamics of the real exchange rate. Using a two-sector dependent open economy model with intersectoral mobility costs for private capital, we show that public investment generates a (i) non-monotonic U-shaped...

This paper puts forward an intertemporal model of a small open economy to analyze the effects of money, government debt and real shocks on growth, inflation and external balance. The model is an endogenous growth, overlapping generations model, with money in the utility function, convex...

Government expenditures are procyclical in emerging markets and counter-cyclical in developed economies. We show this pattern is driven by differences in social transfers. Transfers are more countercyclical and comprise a larger portion of spending in developed economies compared to emerging. In...

Several recent studies have computed different values for US Keynesian expenditure multiplier. This study examines how increases in the US marginal propensity to import have reduced the multiplier. OLS estimate for two time periods are made for the US MPC, marginal propensity to import and the...