Behavioral Law and Economics' effort to replace standard microeconomic assumptions with more realistic, yet still simple assumptions — without jettisoning a basic economic orientation toward behavior that emphasizes prices and utility maximization — has led to the acceptance of an...

A four-year series of subjective-probability forecasting tournaments sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community revealed a host of replicable drivers of predictive accuracy, including experimental interventions such as training in probabilistic reasoning, anti-groupthink teaming, and...

On 8 October 2015, CFA Montréal hosted its annual Asset Allocation Forum under the theme “Portfolio Structuring and the Value of Forecasting.” Two asset management approaches were compared: • The factor investing approach, which relies on identifying common factors in security returns...

Aggregating predictions from multiple judges often yields more accurate predictions than relying on a single judge: the “wisdom-of-the-crowd” effect. This aggregation can be conducted by different methods, from simple averaging to complex techniques, like Bayesian estimators and prediction...