Although the link between oil prices and dollar exchange rates has been frequently analyzed, a clear distinction between prices and nominal exchange rate dynamics and a clarification of the issue of causality has not been provided. In addition, previous studies have mostly neglected...

This paper provides global evidence supporting the hypothesis that expected return models are enhanced by the inclusion of variables that describe the evolution of book-to-market-changes in book value, changes in price, and net share issues. This conclusion is supported using data representing...

Locally explosive behavior is observed in many economic and financial time series when bubbles are formed. We introduce a time-varying parameter model that is capable of describing this behavior in time series data. Our proposed model can be used to predict the emergence, existence and burst of...

A methodology for high dimensional causal inference in a time series context is introduced. It is assumed that there is a monotonic transformation of the data such that the dynamics of the transformed variables are described by a Gaussian vector autoregressive process. This is tantamount to...