We provide a new way to filter US inflation into trend and cycle components, based on extracting long-run forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We operate the Kalman filter in reverse, beginning with observed forecasts, then estimating parameters, and then extracting the...

The paper's primary purpose is to better monitor shocks; therefore, reliable scientific methods should be used to predict, monitor, and implement those events. In this paper, tourism prices are studied as an economic, I(2) and social phenomenon for better performance. The selection of...

This paper uses a rich weekly price database from the largest supermarket in Uruguay to analyze the relationship among prices, micro-level sales, and business cycle conditions. On average, 7% of products were on sale each month, and we show a positive and statistically significant but small...