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Cycles in the behavior of stock markets have been widely documented. There is an increasing body of literature on whether stock markets anticipate business cycles or its turning points. Several recent studies assert that financial integration impacts positively on business cycle comovements of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011609909
estimation of static factor models and factor augmented autoregressions using a set of 190 quarterly observations of 144 US …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532582
In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376640
version of the D6 Factor that improves upon the original model in several ways. While the original D6 based its estimation on … estimation period by a decade. These changes provide the updated model with substantially more information while reducing the … noise in the estimation. -- coincident index ; dynamic factor model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009419466
We adopt an unobserved components time series model to extract financial cycles for the United States and the five largest euro area countries over the period 1970 to 2014. We find that credit, the credit-to-GDP ratio and house prices have medium-term cycles which share a few common statistical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011456728
the observed time series. We develop a simulated maximum likelihood estimation method based on importance sampling and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011809984
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219585
This paper considers factor estimation from heterogenous data, where some of the variables are noisy and only weakly … estimation with sparse priors on the loadings matrix. The choice of a sparse prior is an extension to the existing macroeconomic … majority of the variables in both datasets are irrelevant for factor estimation. -- Factor models ; variable selection ; sparse …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009674269
Germany. We apply two methods for the estimation of the cyclical components from the data: the approach based on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009548298
the observed time series. We develop a simulated maximum likelihood estimation method based on importance sampling and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012924242