. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE …

Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate … forecasting. In addition, we adopt a driftless random walk prior, so that cross-dynamics matter for forecasting only if there is …

We investigate the probability forecasting performance of a three-regime dynamic ordered probit model framework …-parametric dating algorithm for the identification of these three phases. We compare the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting skills of an …

shown to be specific for commodity and market. A forecasting comparison on the basis of the identified models suggests that …

matrix and averages model estimates across all data releases. Using standard forecasting and policy models to analyze … monetary authorities' reaction functions, we show that this simple method can improve forecasting performance and provide …

model. We illustrate the proposed methodology with a real-time forecasting exercise, using a simple neo-Keynesian dynamic …