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Using a state-space system, I forecasted the US Treasury yields by employing frequentist and Bayesian methods after first decomposing the yields of varying maturities into its unobserved term structure factors. Then, I exploited the structure of the state-space model to forecast the Treasury...
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inflation. -- Path forecast ; forecast uncertainty ; simultaneous confidence region ; Scheffé’s S-method ; Mahalanobis distance …
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