applied to quarterly and monthly US inflation in an empirical study. We find that the persistence of quarterly inflation has … and density forecasts for monthly US inflation. …

model. We illustrate the proposed methodology with a real-time forecasting exercise, using a simple neo-Keynesian dynamic …

-of-sample ; prediction ; testing ; multiple model comparisons ; inflation forecasting …-statistic has best power. We illustrate, our procedures by comparing forecasts of different models for U.S. inflation. -- Out …

simple to construct and appear to work well in a variety of cases explored empirically and by simulation. The proposed … inflation. -- Path forecast ; forecast uncertainty ; simultaneous confidence region ; Scheffé’s S-method ; Mahalanobis distance …

random forest machine learning algorithm systematically outperform well-established benchmarks at predicting U.S. inflation …

applied to quarterly and monthly US inflation in an empirical study. We find that the persistence of quarterly inflation has … and density forecasts for monthly US inflation …

Recent empirical work has considered the prediction of inflation by combining the information in a large number of time … the forecasts over a large number of different models, each of which is a linear regression model that relates inflation … pseudo out-of-sample prediction of US inflation, and find that it gives more accurate forecasts than simple equal weighted …

inflation more broadly. Estimation and simulation results indicate that wage growth was strongly affected early in the pandemic …We specify an empirical model of US inflation which has the dynamics of wage and price setting at its core. In the … studies of pandemic-era inflation have confirmed that shocks to energy prices were important, but have not included imported …

futures prices for U.S. core inflation. The proposed aggregator reduces the out-of-sample root mean squared error for 12-month …-ahead inflation forecasts of the benchmark AR(1) model by 28 percent (20 percent) for the PCE (CPI) measure of core inflation. To …