Forecast with judgment and models

by Francesca Monti

This paper proposes a simple and model-consistent method for combining forecasts generated by structural micro-founded models and judgmental forecasts. The method also enables the judgmental forecasts to be interpreted through the lens of the model. We illustrate the proposed methodology with a real-time forecasting exercise, using a simple neo-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and prediction from the Survey of Professional Forecasters

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Year of publication:	[2008]
Authors:	Monti, Francesca
Publisher:	Brussels : National Bank of Belgium
Subject:	forecasting \| judgment \| structural models \| Kalman Filter \| real time \| Makroökonometrie \| Macroeconometrics \| Prognoseverfahren \| Forecasting model \| Allgemeines Gleichgewicht \| General equilibrium \| Wirtschaftsprognose \| Economic forecast \| Theorie \| Theory \| Schätzung \| Estimation \| USA \| United States \| 1992-2006

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Extent:	1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten) Illustrationen
Series:	Working paper / National Bank of Belgium / National Bank of Belgium. - Brussels, ISSN 1784-2476, ZDB-ID 2225248-4. - Vol. no 153 (December 2008)
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Graue Literatur ; Non-commercial literature ; Arbeitspapier ; Working Paper
Language:	English
Other identifiers:	hdl:10419/144365 [Handle]
Classification:	C32 - Time-Series Models ; C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011599088