multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on a medium-scale Bayesian vector autoregression. The choice of variables …% and 40% of cyclical movements in consumption to uncertainty shocks. …

common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a large dataset of disaggregated industrial … production series for the US economy. Our results indicate that common uncertainty and uncertainty linked to nondurable goods … both recorded their pre-pandemic global peaks during the 1973-75 recession. In contrast, durable goods uncertainty recorded …

Using firm and industry data, we establish two facts: (i) Uncertainty about demand conditions not only reduces export … regularities by developing a new firmbased trade model wherein managers are risk averse. Higher volatility induces the reallocation …