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duration estimators can be used for the estimation and forecasting of the integrated variance of an underlying semi … high-frequency data better and produce more accurate forecasts than competing realized volatility and option …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012855793
We estimate a general microstructure model of the transitory and permanent impact of order flow on stock prices. Jumps are detected in both the transaction price (observation equation) and fundamental value (state equation). The model's parameters and variances are updated in real time. Prices...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010256970
volatility of Borsa Istanbul 100 Index (BIST-100). Sample data cover the period from January 2008 to December 2017. The main … nonlinear volatility models (symmetric and asymmetric Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity [GARCH …]-type models) were used to model and estimate BIST-100 volatility in response to political news. The findings of the paper …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012131511
. Applying our model to high-frequency transaction data, we detect two distinct regimes in the intraday volatility process: a … dominant volatility regime that is observable throughout the trading day representing the risk-transferring trading activity of … investors, and a minor volatility regime that concentrates around market liquidity shocks which mainly capture impacts of firm …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012903299
improved ex-post volatility measurements but has also inspired research into their potential value as an informa-tion source … for longer horizon volatility forecasts. In this paper we explore the forecasting value of these high fre-quency series in … conjunction with a variety of volatility models for returns on the Standard & Poor's 100 stock index. We consider two so …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011326944
The contributions of error distributions have been ignored while modeling stock market volatility in Nigeria and … studies have shown that the application of appropriate error distribution in volatility model enhances efficiency of the model … asymmetric volatility models each in Normal, Student's-t and generalized error distributions with the view to selecting the best …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489480
apply generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation. We find that we can get relatively accurate parameter estimates with … form the best linear forecasts for future volatility we find that the behavioral model generates sensible forecasts that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010501932
In order to study the volatility spillovers / the transfer of volatilities from spot and futures markets for the period … VAR models for the volatilities can exhibit the nature of the change in volatility.In a heat wave, the conditional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131718
volatility of the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 indexes. As a proxy for daily volatility, we consider a consistent and unbiased estimator … of the integrated volatility that is computed from high frequency intra-day returns. We also consider a simple algorithm …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155198
estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying parameters. We use this method to study the time-varying relationship …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842441