We introduce a continuous-time principal-agent model where the agent can privately influence both the drift and diffusion of the cash flows. The total diffusion is the product of the agent's volatility choice and a stochastic volatility process that is unobservable to the principal. This model...

A risk management strategy is proposed as being robust to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) by selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models. The robust forecast is based on the median of the point VaR forecasts of a set of conditional volatility...

This paper examines the effectiveness of using futures contracts as hedging instruments of: (1) alternative models of volatility for estimating conditional variances and covariances; (2) alternative currencies; and (3) alternative maturities of futures contracts. For this purpose, daily data of...

Commercially available factor models provide good predictions of short-horizon (e.g. one day or one week) portfolio volatility, based on estimated portfolio factor loadings and responsive estimates of factor volatility. These predictions are of significant value to certain short-term investors,...

S&P 500 Index option-based volatility indexes have untenable risk-return profiles. These volatility indexes are not designed with consideration of important real-world risk characteristics of options and fail to represent volatility as a differentiated asset-class with relevance to the long-term...

Investors have traditionally relied on mean-variance analysis to determine a portfolio’s optimal asset mix, but they have struggled to incorporate private equity into this framework because they do not know how to estimate its risk. The observed volatility of private equity returns is...

The paper examines the performance of four multivariate volatility models, namely CCC, VARMA-GARCH, DCC and BEKK, for the crude oil spot and futures returns of two major benchmark international crude oil markets, Brent and WTI, to calculate optimal portfolio weights and optimal hedge ratios, and...

I introduce novel preference formulations which capture aversion to ambiguity about unknown and potentially time-varying volatility. I compare these preferences with Gilboa and Schmeidler’s maxmin expected utility as well as variational formulations of ambiguity aversion. The impact of...