In this discussion paper we introduce time-varying parameters in the dynamic Nelson–Siegel yield curve model for the simultaneous analysis and forecasting of interest rates of different maturities. The Nelson–Siegel model has been recently reformulated as a dynamic factor model with vector...

We consider unobserved components time series models where the components are stochastically evolving over time and are subject to stochastic volatility. It enables the disentanglement of dynamic structures in both the mean and the variance of the observed time series. We develop a simulated...

The aim of these notes is to revisit sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampling. SMC sampling is a powerful simulation tool for solving non-linear and/or non-Gaussian state space models. We illustrate this with several examples.

Empirical research indicates that the volatility of stock return time series have long memory. However, it has been demonstrated that short memory processes contaminated with random level shifts can often be confused as being long memory. Often this feature is referred to as spurious long...

The literature has shown that the volatility of Stock and Forex rate market returns shows the characteristic of long memory. Another fact that is shown in the literature is that this feature may be spurious and volatility actually consists of a short memory process contaminated with random level...

Estimating the covariance and correlation between assets using high frequency data is challenging due to market microstructure effects and Epps effects.  In this paper we extend Xiu's univariate QML approach to the multivariate case, carrying out inference as if the observations arise from an...

We derive indirect estimators of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models in which the volatilities of common and idiosyncratic factors depend on their past unobserved values by calibrating the score of a Kalman-filter approximation with inequality constraints on the auxiliary model...