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During times when the Chinese government wished to prop up the market, sell-side analysts from brokerages with significant government ownership issued relatively less pessimistic (or more optimistic) earnings forecasts, earnings-forecast revisions, and stock recommendations; they were also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011931362
behavioral and rational biases encountered in US economic forecasting also exists in Continental Europe, the United Kingdom and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011901258
represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic …-horizon forecasting and structural models should be used in long-horizon forecasting. Our paper compareds both state-of-the art data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295876
pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011340986
This document gives a detailed account of the current version of the Hungarian Quarterly Projection Model (NEM). It describes the main building blocks, presents the forecast performance of the model and, finally, it illustrates the responses to the most important shocks the Hungarian economy may...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322393
-of-sample forecasting performance. Differences across countries are seemingly linked to market liquidity. The paper further finds that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604737
While fiscal forecasting and monitoring has its roots in the accountability of governments for the use of public funds … discusses the main issues and challenges in the field of fiscal forecasting from a practitioner’s perspective and places them in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604889
’s forecasting performance relative to a number of benchmarks, including a Bayesian VAR. We finally consider several applications to … illustrate the potential contributions the NAWM can make to forecasting and policy analysis. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604990
as a pseudo real time forecasting exercise, i.e. due account is taken of the pattern of available monthly variables over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605021
There is a broad consensus in the literature that costs of information processing and acquisition may generate costly disagreements in expectations among economic agents, and that central banks may play a central role in reducing such dispersion in expectations. This paper analyses empirically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605192