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represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic …-horizon forecasting and structural models should be used in long-horizon forecasting. Our paper compareds both state-of-the art data …
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pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …
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This document gives a detailed account of the current version of the Hungarian Quarterly Projection Model (NEM). It describes the main building blocks, presents the forecast performance of the model and, finally, it illustrates the responses to the most important shocks the Hungarian economy may...
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-of-sample forecasting performance. Differences across countries are seemingly linked to market liquidity. The paper further finds that the …
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While fiscal forecasting and monitoring has its roots in the accountability of governments for the use of public funds … discusses the main issues and challenges in the field of fiscal forecasting from a practitioner’s perspective and places them in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604889
’s forecasting performance relative to a number of benchmarks, including a Bayesian VAR. We finally consider several applications to … illustrate the potential contributions the NAWM can make to forecasting and policy analysis. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604990
is, GDP is forecast via the forecasts of value added across the different branches of activity, which is quite new in the … as a pseudo real time forecasting exercise, i.e. due account is taken of the pattern of available monthly variables over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605021
There is a broad consensus in the literature that costs of information processing and acquisition may generate costly disagreements in expectations among economic agents, and that central banks may play a central role in reducing such dispersion in expectations. This paper analyses empirically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605192