We introduce a simulation-free method to model and forecast multiple asset returns and employ it to investigate the optimal ensemble of features to include when jointly predicting monthly stock and bond excess returns. Our approach builds on the Bayesian Dynamic Linear Models of West and...

In this paper we propose a new battery of test statistics for dynamic specification and density functional form in a wide range of multivariate time series models including linear and non-linear VAR specifications with multivariate GARCH disturbances. The tests are applied to the vector of...

We introduce the multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and discuss how it generalizes a vast class of continuous-time and discrete-time multivariate processes. Relying on the simple geometrical interpretation of the dynamics of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process we introduce cointegration and its...

In this article we propose a new graphical method to help us to uncover potential outliers in multivariate samples. The idea behind the method is to analyze the behavior of a growing neighborhood of each data point. This method is very robust and permits to find outliers in very complex structures