This paper systematically studies the use of mixed-frequency data sets and suggests that the use of high frequency data in forecasting economic aggregates can improve forecast accuracy. The best way of using this information is to build a single model, for example, an ARMA model with missing...

Doğrusal olmayan yapıdaki iktisadi değişkenler uzun yıllar doğrusal modeller araçları ile analiz edilmiş bu nedenle de gerçek hayatı açıklamada yetersiz kalmıştır. Son dönemde yapılan çalışmalar sonucunda doğrusal olmayan zaman serileri analizlerinin özellikle makro...

We review and construct consistent in-sample specification and out-of-sample model selection tests on conditional distributions and predictive densities associated with continuous multifactor (possibly with jumps) and (non)linear discrete models of the short term interest rate. The results of...

Nonlinear economic variables have been tested for many years with linear models, thus making them insufficient in providing an explanation for real life. As a result of the recently conducted studies, nonlinear time series analyses are observed to be more successful in forming especially the...

In this paper we consider the problem of interpreting the signs of the estimated coefficients in multivariate time series regressions where the regressors are correlated. Using a continuous time model, we argue that focusing on the signs of individual coefficients in such regressions could be...

Bayesian inference requires an analyst to set priors. Setting the right prior is crucial for precise forecasts. This paper analyzes how optimal prior changes when an economy is hit by a recession. For this task, an autoregressive distributed lag model is chosen. The results show that a sharp...

The purpose of this study was to investigate and analyze the relationship between foreign exchange and capital market dynamics in Nigeria from January 1999 to February 2018. The study deployed the Non-Linear-ARDL model to study the dynamics of exchange rate and the capital market in Nigeria. The...

In an exchange economy with recursive preferences (Epstein and Zin, 1989), we propose a novel nonparametric generalized method of moment (GMM) series approach to estimate unknown policy functions which are recursively specified in a system of nonlinear conditional expectation models...

We review and construct consistent in-sample specification and out-of-sample model selection tests on conditional distributions and predictive densities associated with continuous multifactor (possibly with jumps) and (non)linear discrete models of the short term interest rate. The results of...

This paper examines the steady state properties of the Threshold Vector Autoregressive model. Assuming that the trigger variable is exogenous and the regime process follows a Bernoulli distribution, necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of stationary distribution are derived. A...