This paper investigates the impact of human capital on economic growth in Guatemala through the application of an error-correction methodology. Two channels are analyzed, by which human capital is expected to influence growth. A better-educated labor force appears to have a positive and...

Swarnajayanti Gram Swarozgar Yojana (SGSY) is a government-sponsored microfinance program. The scheme is based on four features: group lending with joint liability, progressive lending, back-ended subsidy, and social capital. We propose a new model of SGSY having these features: group lending...

The Great Recession and the subsequent period of subdued GDP growth in most advanced economies have highlighted the need for macroeconomic forecasters to account for sudden and deep recessions, periods of higher macroeconomic volatility, and fluctuations in trend GDP growth. In this paper, we...

We propose a new approach to deal with structural breaks in time series models. The key contribution is an alternative dynamic stochastic specification for the model parameters which describes potential breaks. After a break new parameter values are generated from a so-called baseline prior...

The detection of structural change and determination of lag lengths are long-standing issues in time series analysis. This paper demonstrates how these can be successfully married in a Bayesian analysis. By taking account of the inherent uncertainty about the lag length when deciding on the...

This paper focuses on the analysis of long-memory properties of copula-based time series. We show via simulations that there exist Clayton copula-based stationary Markov processes that exhibit long memory on the level of copulas. This long memory is captured by an extremely slow hyperbolic decay...

We develop a Markov-Switching Autoregressive Conditional Intensity (MS-ACI) model with time-varying transitional parameters, and show that it can be reliably estimated via the Stochastic Approximation Expectation-Maximization algorithm. Applying our model to high-frequency transaction data, we...

We propose a new approach to deal with structural breaks in time series models. The key contribution is an alternative dynamic stochastic specification for the model parameters which describes potential breaks. After a break new parameter values are generated from a so-called baseline prior...

This paper extends the evolution equation of Patton (2006) for the time variation of the copula parameters by specifying an autoregressive fractionally integrated term. For any copula parameter there is a suitable one-to-one transformation so that the maximum likelihood estimation method may be...