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duration estimators can be used for the estimation and forecasting of the integrated variance of an underlying semi … high-frequency data better and produce more accurate forecasts than competing realized volatility and option …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012855793
We estimate a general microstructure model of the transitory and permanent impact of order flow on stock prices. Jumps are detected in both the transaction price (observation equation) and fundamental value (state equation). The model's parameters and variances are updated in real time. Prices...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010256970
. Applying our model to high-frequency transaction data, we detect two distinct regimes in the intraday volatility process: a … dominant volatility regime that is observable throughout the trading day representing the risk-transferring trading activity of … investors, and a minor volatility regime that concentrates around market liquidity shocks which mainly capture impacts of firm …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012903299
improved ex-post volatility measurements but has also inspired research into their potential value as an informa-tion source … for longer horizon volatility forecasts. In this paper we explore the forecasting value of these high fre-quency series in … conjunction with a variety of volatility models for returns on the Standard & Poor's 100 stock index. We consider two so …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011326944
estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying parameters. We use this method to study the time-varying relationship …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842441
Forecasting volatility models typically rely on either daily or high frequency (HF) data and the choice between these … two categories is not obvious. In particular, the latter allows to treat volatility as observable but they suffer from … these two family forecasting-volatility models, comparing their performance (in terms of Value at Risk, VaR) under the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011674479
estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying parameters. We use this method to study the timevarying relationship …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012156426
Forecasting-volatility models typically rely on either daily or high frequency (HF) data and the choice between these … two categories is not obvious. In particular, the latter allows to treat volatility as observable but they suffer of many … forecasting-volatility models, comparing their performance (in terms of Value at Risk, VaR) under the assumptions of jumping …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011730304
for volatility, correlation and covariance using high frequency financial data. It also implements complementary … paper first presents the issues associated with exploiting high frequency financial data. We then describe the volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013237488
leverage effect and maintains a mathematical structure that facilitates volatility estimation. A class of bivariate models that … volatility information improves the day volatility estimation. The results indicate a forecasting improvement using bivariate …We propose a methodology to include night volatility estimates in the day volatility modeling problem with high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012160811