In this paper, we derive a small textbook New Keynesian DSGE model to evaluate Polish and Romanian business cycles during the 2003 - 2014 period. Given the similarities between the two economies, we use an identical calibration procedure for certain coefficients and marginal prior distributions...

The consequences of business cycle contingencies in unemployment insurance systems are considered in a search-matching model allowing for shifts between good and bad states of nature. We show that not only is there an insurance argument for such contingencies, but there may also be an incentive...

Several Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy and economic gains using financial and macroeconomic time series....