Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity …. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and … discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations. We then provide an overview of the empirical evidence …

The paper proves that the Bayesian approach to learning and expectations formation implies no propositions that could … observations, and the assumption of Bayesian rationality. Since no betting strategy is irrational, Bayesianism is useless as a …

particular violation of the Full Information Rational Expectations hypothesis that requires explanation. In contrast, minor …

The paper proves that the Bayesian approach to learning and expectations formation implies no propositions that could … observations, and the assumption of Bayesian rationality. Since no betting strategy is irrational, Bayesianism is useless as a …

this result, it is established too that adding common knowledge of the rationality of the formation of expectations —on top … of that of rationality of choices and market clearing— does not suffice either to guarantee rational expectations …Rational expectations do not require beliefs to be consistent with history and with what agents can conclude from it …

frequency and real-time data. I present a collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many … previously unexploited monthly and real-time measures of inflation expectations. These higher frequency measures tend to … outperform the standard three low frequency survey measures in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality, indicating …

Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity …. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and … discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations. We then provide an overview of the empirical evidence …

assumption of rationality forms the basis of neoclassical economic theory, question of whether expectations of industrial …Expectations concerning key economic variables certainly influence decisions undertaken by economic agents. Since … enterprises are indeed formed rationally deserves careful attention. Direct data on expectations are available mainly through …

becoming a metric for rationality. When inferential expectations are built into a Dornbusch-style model of the exchange rate … inferential expectations. If a belief is overturned through the build-up of evidence, agents are assumed to switch to the rational … expectation. Rational expectations are shown to be a special (limiting) case of inferential expectations, with the test size a …

The paper explains how workers' expectations of being discriminated against can be self-confirming, accounting for the …