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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010424869
According to housing investment models, house prices and replacement costshould have an equilibrating relationship. Previous empirical work|mainlybased on aggregate-level data|has found only little evidence of such a relationship.By using a unique data set, covering transactions of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860743
Macroeconomic risk assessments play an important role in the forecasts of manyinstitutions. However, to the best of our knowledge their performance has notbeen investigated yet. In this work, we study the Bank of England’s risk forecastsfor inflation. We find that these forecasts do not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866177
In this papaer, we put DSGE forecasts in competition with factor forecasts. We focus on these two models since they represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic background; the factor model on the other hand is mainly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866191
This paper examines the forecast accuracy of cointegrated vector autoregressive models when confronted with extreme observations at the end of the sample period. It focuses on comparing two outlier correction methods, additive outliers and innovational outliers, within a forecasting framework...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015195440
We provide a versatile nowcasting toolbox that supports three model classes (dynamic factor models, large Bayesian VAR, bridge equations) and offers methods to manage data selection and adjust for Covid-19 observations. The toolbox aims at simplifying two key tasks: creating new nowcasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015199442
In 1936, John Maynard Keynes proposed that emotions and instincts are pivotal in decision-making, particularly for investors. Both positive and negative moods can influence judgments and decisions, extending to economic and financial choices. Intuitions, emotional states, and biases...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015199487
This paper investigates the impact of news media information on improving short-term GDP growth forecasts by analyzing a large and unique corpus of 12.4 million news articles spanning from 1991 to 2018. We extract business cycle-related sentiment from each article using an annotated dataset from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015211359
We propose a prior for VAR models that exploits the panel structure of macroeconomic time series while also providing shrinkage towards zero to address overfitting concerns. The prior is flexible as it detects shared dynamics of individual variables across endogenously determined groups of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013366009
A reflection on the lackluster growth over the decade since the Global Financial Crisis has renewed interest in preventative measures for a long-standing problem. Advances in machine learning algorithms during this period present promising forecasting solutions. In this context, the paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013368847