Perhaps the most notable development in the area of monetary policy over the last decade is the growing popularity of inflation targeting. This regime is based to a great extent on communication and, more specifically, on using and communicating assessments of future inflation. The central...

This paper is primarily concerned with assessing the bias of the CNB’s predictions in relation to undershooting of the inflation target. We conclude that the inflation prediction error has decreased over time. We further point out that GDP growth and interest rates were, respectively, above...

This paper investigates basic characteristics of inflation targeting in the Czech Republic. The first part of the paper starts by briefly indicating some general macroeconomic conditions of inflation targeting in the Czech Republic, including the identification of the main shocks, which affected...

This paper is primarily concerned with assessing the bias of the CNB's predictions in relation to undershooting of the inflation target. We conclude, that the inflation prediction error has decreased over time. We further point out that the GDP growth respectively interest rates were above...

This paper provides some stylized facts of inflation target fulfillment in the Czech Republic in 1998–2007. In the first part, it discusses briefly the general macroeconomic conditions of the Czech inflation targeting regime, including an identification of the main shocks affecting its...

This paper asks to what extent were the last one hundred policy decisions taken by the Czech National Bank (CNB) considered predictable by the market. The results are threefold. First, CNB policy decisions can be considered as predictable on average. Second, policy predictability followed no...

The article summarizes papers presented at two seminars organized by the Czech Economic Association in November 1999 held in Ostrava and Jindøichùv Hradec, respectively. The first seminar, ?Financial Indicators and the Czech Economy,? attracted papers aimed at both presenting the theory and...

The paper offers a preliminary analysis of possible spontaneous euroization in the Czech economy. After a brief general introduction of the issue of currency substitution it specifically discusses two things. First, the transmission channels of potential spontaneous euroization, through which...

Using a simple single-equation approach, many studies have shown that the term structure of interest rates or its approximation – the term spread is a potentially useful indicator of future inflation and/or future real economic activity. We argue that these results may be biased due to the...

Inflation-targeting central banks have a respectable track record at explaining their policy actions and corresponding inflation outturns. Using a simple forward-looking policy rule and an assessment of inflation reports, we provide a new methodology for the empirical evaluation of consistency...