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overconfidence would have an important impact on financial markets, among other domains, leading i.a. to excessive trading. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009321050
This study investigates the quality of direct probability judgments and quantile estimates with a focus on calibration and consistency. The two response modes use different measures of miscalibration, so it is difficult to directly compare their relative (in)accuracy. We employed a more refined...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009191751
. Higher risk taking may be explained by a higher degree of overconfidence, less herding behavior, or a lower degree of risk … overconfidence is mixed. We will argue that this mixed evidence may be likely due to the heterogeneity in the employed definitions of … risk taking and overconfidence. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261673
This paper investigates collective denial and willful blindness in groups, organizations and markets. Agents with anticipatory preferences, linked through an interaction structure, choose how to interpret and recall public signals about future prospects. Wishful thinking (denial of bad news) is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293122
A tradition from Knight (1921) argues that more risk tolerant individuals are more likely to become entrepreneurs, but perform worse. We test these predictions with two risk tolerance proxies: stock market participation and personal leverage. Using investment data for 400,000 individuals, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293212
overconfidence but due to the asymmetric information structure of the market. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293392
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010306538
We provide a preference-based rationale for endogenous overconfidence. Horizon-dependent risk aversion, combined with a … possibility to forget, can generate overconfidence and excessive risk taking in equilibrium. An "anxiety prone" agent, who is more … results to the literature on empirically observed overconfidence and excessive risk taking in several domains of financial and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011341006
This experimental study measures three types of overconfidence in the decision behavior of participants from Germany … overconfidence, a pre-experimental questionnaire made this identity salient to a randomly selected treatment group. Previous studies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372092
-economic status and poorer health are relatively less likely to realize how unhealthy they are and this overconfidence is associated …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011401757