Risk/return management has not only evolved as one of the key success factors for enterprisesespecially in the financial services industry, but is in the times of the financial crisis crucial for thesurvival of a company. It demands powerful and at the same time flexible computational...

[...]This article examines the economic rationale for managingrisk on a firmwide, consolidated basis. Our goal is to lay outsome of the key issues that supervisors and risk managementpractitioners have confronted in assessing and developingconsolidated risk management systems. In doing so, we...

In the era of Basel II a powerful tool for bankruptcy prognosis isvital for banks. The tool must be precise but also easily adaptable tothe bank's objections regarding the relation of false acceptances (TypeI error) and false rejections (Type II error). We explore the suitabil-ity of Smooth...

This paper presents a behavioral finance model of the exchange rate. Agents forecast theexchange rate by means of very simple rules. They can choose between three groups offorecasting rules: fundamentalist, extrapolative and momentum rules. Agents using afundamentalist rule are not able to...

In the ideal Black-Scholes world, financial time series are assumed 1) stationary (time homogeneous) and 2) having conditionally normal distribution given the past. These two assumptions have been widely-used in many methods such as the RiskMetrics, one risk management method considered as...

In an information cascade experiment participants are confronted with artificial predecessors predicting in line with the BHW model (Bikchandani et al.,1992). Using the BDM (Becker et al., 1964) mechanism we study participants'probability perceptions based on maximum prices for participating in...

Over recent years, study on risk management has been prompted by the Basel committee for regular banking supervisory. There are however limitations of some widely-used risk management methods that either calculate risk measures under the Gaussian distributional assumption or involve numerical...

It is widely recognized that "market failure" prevents efficient risksharing in natural disaster insurance. As a consequence, many countriesadopted institutional frameworks presenting public sector participation,often praised as public-private partnerships. We define risk selection asa situation...