This paper examines empirically the Phillips curve relationship for the Chinese economy. We use quarterly data that go back to 1978 and employ a multivariate rather than univariate method in the construction of gap measures for inflation, money and output jointly with reliable error bands. Our...

This paper employs a structural time series model designed with three components of stochastic seasonality, trigonometric expression of cyclicality and local linear trend to investigate the evolutionary process of China's GDP. In particular, the model is able to detect the stop–go feature of...

We estimate capacity output and cycles relative to it in India’s non-agricultural sector from 1951 to 2008, defining capacity as the level of output beyond which demand leads to a rise in prices. We postulate a delayed response of the price level of non-agricultural goods and services after...

In this paper we compare two model-based measures of the output gap. The first measure, as proposed by Gali (2011), defines output gap as the difference between actual output and the output level that would be if the economy operates under a perfectly competitive market without price or wage...

Output gap is defined as the difference between the potential output and actual output. There are several approaches used in the literature to estimate output gap. With this study it is aimed to obtain alternative output gap estimations for Turkish Economy, considering the constraints of...

In this paper we study asymmetries in the Taylor rule for the United States during the 1970–2012 period. We show that monetary authorities have been constantly concerned with excess demand in overheated periods – when the output gap is positive or the unemployment rate falls below 7% or 7.5%...

This paper empirically studies the predictability of emerging markets’ stock returns by business cycle variables and the role of developed markets’ business cycle dynamics in this respect. The evidence shows that the link between business cycles and future stock market returns among emerging...

In this study we show that inflation rate and current account evolved in line with some historical patterns, once the global financial and economic crisis hit Romania in the latter part of 2008. Core inflation declined at a relatively fast pace for a long period of time. It reached negative...

This article aims to analyze the sustainable development of tourism in Romania, given its cyclical movements generated by using seasonal resources. For this we used output gap indicator, defined as the difference between real GDP and potential GDP. Output gap indicates disparity in the real...

Worldwide, over time, the years of economic crisis were defined by significant increases in the levels of budget deficits. Discussions on sizing budget deficits, financing, especially the volume of public debt became more intense, both politically and academically. The impact of budget deficit...